Plausible Alternatives [2007]
There are two sorts of people in the world: those who believe in absolute truth. And those who don’t.
I remember when I swapped from one group to the other. It was at university in the 80’s. Like the other psychology students in the class I had been indoctrinated to believe that experimental research would ultimately reveal a pure, unblemished reality. An empirical nirvana of wholeness and oneness.
But there we were being remorselessly convinced by a philosopher of science that our quest was hopeless. There were no absolute truths after all. Just plausible alternatives. Even as I accepted his argument I remember thinking what a barren and meaningless world that would make. It seemed sad.
But actually it’s quite rich isn’t it? We all construct our realities in slightly different ways. We see the same phenomena in a myriad of different shapes and hues. When you acquire the ability to see something in a different way it is suddenly free to mutate.
Seeming true can be a stronger force than actually being proven. Our shared ideas develop, not – as we fondly imagine – through exploration and discovery, but through provocation, persuasion and acceptance. When an idea becomes plausible to many it becomes to all intents and purposes - true.
That's why we’ve journeyed from the Marlboro Man to Smoking Kills. From Silent Spring to Nuclear Winter to Global Warming. From the Cold War to Bird Flu. From happy meals to sad salads. And from life-adding carbonated beverages to sugary drinks full of empty calories.
These transitions of belief are most obvious in the world of fashion. The journey from white gloves and matching shoes to exposed midriffs and cute tattoos – and the male equivalent - from stubbies and soap on a rope to moisturiser and metrosexuality - required several mental leaps which afterwards rendered the past quite unintelligible. “What were we thinking?”.
More recently we’ve seen the re-framing of climate change. In my December newsletter I talked about it having reached a tipping point last year where suddenly a sizeable group accepted that this theory was absolutely true. What changed? The evidence? The quality of the argument? Or Al Gore on a cherry picker perched above a projected graph saying “this is where the trend line is going”. Provocation, persuasion, acceptance.
My job as a social trends researcher has been to observe the transit of ideas and the adaptation of our views of the world. Borrowing concepts from my psychology training I’ve worked on the assumption that rather than blindly reacting to change, people operate from a complex mix of perception, analysis, habit and experimentation.
I used to talk about the emerging social environment as being a mix of six powerful forces – Fragmentation, Uncertainty, Complexity, Diversity, Intangibility and Transience [there was a helpful mnemonic behind it all]. Now I can’t help noticing all the amazing downstream effects of our continuing adaptation to [and effect upon] this increasingly fluid environment.
In The Herald yesterday there was a report of an American study which showed college students were growing increasingly narcissistic and self-centred. On a standardised test known as the Narcissistic Personality Inventory [NPI}, now two-thirds of students have above average scores – 30% more than in 1982. Plausibly we can say that at the very least, being seen as narcissistic is increasingly socially acceptable. My Space and You Tube lead the way.
The authors blame the self-esteem movement and warn that it will have harmful effects on personal relationships and the fabric of American society. “You’ve got to stop endlessly repeating “you’re special” says the lead author of the book “ Generation Me: Why Today’s Young Americans Are More Confident, Assertive, Entitled – and More Miserable Than Ever Before”.
In New Zealand we have the same underlying phenomena. We increasingly treat our children as if they’re jewels. We have fewer of them [and there’s nothing more narcissistic than an only child]. We want more and better for them. We believe they can and will do whatever they want. Where before we may have chipped and criticised, now we praise and encourage. Are we making less of a society instead of more? It doesn’t seem so.
The fluidity and unpredictability of life negates the power of former bastions of society. Alongside absolute truth, absolute power is also waning. According to a February 2000 State Services Commission Working Paper, trust in government has declined. The trend seems to be growing – along with the decline of other collective institutions. Membership of unions, church attendance. Fewer people willingly comply with directives and requirements. Fewer understand why that would be so necessary. More people follow the beat of their own drum.
One day I must go back to that philosophy lecturer who so changed my view of the world and ask him if the number of plausible alternatives is increasing. Given our increasing diversity you’d almost think it must be – wouldn’t you?
Cheers
Jill
Jill Caldwell is Director of Windshift Communications Ltd. Click Here to contact Jill directly This is a free monthly newsletter provided to direct subscribers and legitimate Windshift contacts only. No further use is made of subscriber information. [Copyright Windshift Communications Ltd 2006]
Distribute [unchanged] with impunity. Quote with attribution.
"Seeming true can be a stronger force than actually being proven.
Our shared ideas develop not as we fondly imagine through exploration and discovery but through provocation, persuasion and acceptance."
