April Newsletter : A Stake in the Ground
This is the first newsletter since September 2009. Ironically this hiatus developed directly from the reorganisation of my newsletters and commentaries that month – an exercise that led me to conclude I had said everything I had to say – at least twice – and there was no point banging on about it.
That was then – this is now. In the intervening time I’ve weathered my own little ‘gfc’, done several very interesting research projects in Australia, made significant changes to the way Windshift actually does its qualitative research, conducted the initial research for an 8 tribes analysis of Australia and travelled New Zealand in search of elusive insights on topics as diverse as career options, chicken and climate change.
So yes – I have something new to say.
1. First. Remove head from sand.
Please read Requiem for a Species by Clive Hamilton. It’s in major book stores. Then – especially if you’re a man – read The Clean Industrial Revolution by Ben McNeill.
They’re both Australian, a philosopher and a scientist – but don’t let that put you off. In my opinion, Australia will be one of the major battlegrounds for the future of our planetary habitat – what with its surfeit of coal and heat and its lack of water.
Clive Hamilton’s book scared the be-jesus out of me – though it’s a bit too pessimistic about people’s ability to change [philosophers seem to know even less about real people than economists]. But it’s nevertheless compelling.
Ben McNeil’s book made absolute sense and suggests a way forward that we – and our Aussie mates – should embrace and adopt.
Factoid from the first book – “each year around the world a hundred new large-scale coal-fired power stations are constructed – a trend that is expected to continue” [P165]
And from the second – “ If we don’t make any changes to our future greenhouse gas emissions the Earth could warm on average by 6 degrees Centigrade this century. . . . It is roughly 50 million years since the earth was that hot. . . the sea level was up to 200 metres higher than today.”[P17]
2. Why ‘especially if you’re a man?’
Partly because most women’s eyes are more likely to glaze over when they start reading about technology and men’s are more likely to light up.
But more generally, I don’t think the solutions to our fossil fuel emissions are going to be womanly. In fact I suspect it’s us and our demand for larger homes, better holidays, more appliances and higher incomes that have significantly exacerbated the use of fossil fuels.
I base my absurd claim that women are more hooked on fossil fuels than men on a single insight – almost a bald generalisation – that when faced with one of those ‘back to the past’ experiences that are often made into television programmes, men are typically in their element doing the hard physical labour and catching food, while the women mostly tend to complain about the lack of dishwashers, hair dryers and microwaves.
Which has led me to the conclusion that the progress [and now the unforeseen consequences] of the 20th century was really all about the collective power of feminine sulking and nagging.
3. We aren’t going back
The Dow is back over 11,000. Despite all the cabbages we tended and the left overs we re-purposed in the last two years, supermarket sales continue to grow.
Even in the depths of recession, people flocked to buy big screen TVs - so they could stay at home in comfort. Consumption and capitalism are alive and well – with many more devotees world wide wanting to join us.
But many of us realise that the twentieth century industrial model has done its dash. Windshift’s 2009 survey showed that of those who believed climate change was happening, 41% agreed it was “ an obvious consequence of the way we live”.
That’s Early Majority territory.
If industrial society based on fossil fuels can't sustain us, what are the options?
The first wave of thought and literature resulting from the climate crisis often pushed the view that we would give up consumption and leave the rotten cities to subsist in small bucolic self-sufficient villages, growing our own food and supplying our own fuel.
. . . .From the people that brought you the noble savage . . . sponsored by the Luddites.
There is a new romanticism in the wind, but for most people the pre-industrial option is a crisis option – the cold, uncomfortable dark age end of the world option. The refugee camp rather than the cosy cottage.
Evidence of defeat.
4. But we’re full of hope.
Those of us who remain hopeful have a much more attractive post-industrial vision. We’re thinking that our future selves will be Prius driving, vege growing, public transport using, cloud computing, über recyclers who power our homes from a mixture of sun, wind and ‘emissions’.
And give back to the grid on the sunny, windy, fruit-eating days.
We assume we will still indulge in technology and travel – but more of the former and less of the latter. We assume planes will find some other fuel to run on and cows will stop belching methane.
We also assume coal will stay in the ground and oil will eventually price itself out of contention as a fuel.
Our vision is adaptable.
- When someone tells us that the Prius is a toy that generates more emissions in its manufacture than it saves in running, we quickly adopt the idea of hydrogen-powered transportation.
- If it comes to a choice between cows and planes and the cows can’t get it together, we’ll replace them with goats and keep on flying.
- And if the planes don’t fly we’ll take a boat. A very fast wind and solar powered boat.
According to Windshift’s 2009 NZ research, in the next 20 years we think we’ll make a fortune out of deep sea oil exploration - though we’ve yet to consider the potential benefits of selling West Coast water to East Coast Australia at a dollar a glass.
And we assume the usual sources of wealth will apply – food exports and tourism.
Yeah good luck with that. I asked a man in a focus group the other day - where will the tourists come from? He said: "the usual places".
5. A stake in the ground
What I've done in the last six months is put a stake in the ground.
On behalf of my potential grand children and their annoying friends, I’m going to do all I can to help us keep the best of what we have created and avoid the worst of the consequences of the way we live – and of the expectations we’ve created for others.
This isn’t something that can wait till next year, next decade or the next generation.
What’s happening to our climate and our habitat is a crisis and it’s an opportunity. I’m interested in realising the opportunity.
Right here. Right now.
Cheers
Jill
Jill Caldwell is Director of Windshift Ltd. Click Here to contact Jill directly This is a free monthly newsletter provided to direct subscribers and legitimate Windshift contacts only. No further use is made of subscriber information. [Copyright Windshift Ltd 2010]
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