Predictions for Christmas [2008]
At a recent event, for a bit of fun I asked the audience, their predictions for Christmas shopping patterns this year,
A big blow-out? A careful accumulation over the past few months? Or vouchers for Boxing Day?
Perhaps they were influenced by what I’d just been telling them – that our most recent research confirms that almost everyone, whether they need to or not, seems to be behaving much more frugally and practically,
But they surprised me. Almost everyone at the event thought there would already have been a careful accumulation of presents over the past few months. Which was interesting because these were classic “thrift is the new Black” upper middle class people who’d found themselves, almost despite themselves, becoming much more frugal this year:
- Saying No to children – or at least, cutting back on their treats
- Planting vegetables for the first time in ages – yes a few designer lettuces in Ponsonby does count
- Feeling somehow stupid if they had to admit paying full price for something.
I’ve done that myself – bought my Christmas gifts months ago and I am the archetypal last minute Christmas Eve shopper.
It's slightly comic to see the contortions of the middle class who have for so long avoided the mending of broken things, the darning of socks and the restriction of wish lists.
Now they're gardening!
I haven't gardened for years. Herbs maybe, but that's it. But I almost found myself buying butter bean plants the other day [till I came to my senses and remembered the size of my kill to grow ratio].
So I bought fennel instead because I remembered that it can grow wild if need be.
Like other "right for the times" categories, suppliers of seeds and plants are having a boom year. And plant purchases are driving up sales at many of the discount stores which stock them.
But what of the not so "right for the times" firms - like car makers and finance companies..
In the US the incoming administration is planning a large economic stimulation package and current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is at last talking about something other than bank rescues.
However the underlying assumption seems to be to drive growth by getting consumers back to the credit-driven lifestyle that has got them - and us - all into this mess.
They're saying that people won't buy cars unless they can put them on credit and they won't use credit cards if the interest rates are sky high. So even if the Big 3 car makers did have a plan to end their love affair with the gas guzzler, buyers would find it difficult to get a car loan to buy them with.
Do we really think it's just lack of credit that's holding people back from buying new cars? I think people all around the world viscerally know that they need to balance their own budgets now, to reduce the risk that they might lose not just what they've already accumulated but also their social status, their self image and their future security.
I think in the short term, this epidemic of frugality needs to be embraced - in the US and here - that we need to move consumption from the fluff and frills to stuff that makes a difference.
I just keep getting flashes of the Hitch-hikers Guide to the Galaxy and its central idea that the creators of human society were on the B ship - the one with all the useless professions. We surely are our own worst enemies.
So embrace commonsense and frugality. They're big sellers when times are tough and they still work quite well when times are not so tough. That's what passes for a sure thing in the current topsi-turviness.
Teach a man to fish for Christmas - or a woman - give goats and socks or invest in something wonderfully enabling. . but make sure you get it cheap.
Cheers
Jill
Jill Caldwell is Director of Windshift Communications Ltd.
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"Do we really think it's just lack of credit that's holding people back from buying new cars?"
