November Newsletter : On The Year Ahead
This is the time of year when my mind turns to social trends – 2007 social trends to be exact. I distribute the proposal for the next year’s social trends programme in December.
Writing the proposal is, in itself, an exercise in foresight. You look for issues which cluster around the inflexion points of society and the economy - tribal boundaries, demographic boundaries or divisions of interest. Whether it’s constructive or destructive, if movement is going to occur, it happens there first.
I’m looking for two different kinds of indicators: evidence of converging influences – as we find with the whole issue of climate change which recently “tipped” – and what I call zones of confusion – concepts or behaviour which are being buffeted by unresolved or conflicting forces.
The broad topics for next year’s social trends represent my assessment of the factors which will affect New Zealanders over the next 12 to 18 months, from two perspectives - behaviours and attitudes that must be monitored because they change frequently, and emerging issues with strong momentum.
The Things That Change Frequently
- Perceptions of current well-being & quality of life – It’s always a major driver of behaviour and attitude, but the emphasis changes over time – money, knowledge, health and fitness, stress reduction, personal relationships . . .what's a luxury in 2007?
- Mood and economic behaviour – It’s been subdued in 2006, though not as weak as some predicted. I suspect we may be creating better conditions for growth now – but probably not everywhere.
- Technology use – loves, hates, new experiences, emerging trends. What are the early adopters into? What are the hot technologies? What’s become mainstream and familiar? Has the demand for broadband found its price point yet? Are new uses emerging?
- Arts, leisure and entertainment – we keep on top of the relative value attached to sport, recreation, arts, culture & home entertainment. We’ve seen the growth of local content in music, film and fashion, but is that leading us to other places?
Emerging Issues
- Attitudes to climate change, the environment and conservation –There’s been a major change in media awareness, and public concern, but what happens next? Is our desire to save the planet profound or only skin deep? How far has the idea of carbon neutrality penetrated? What do we want to do? And are tribal differences deepening – or not?
- Media, information & persuasion – Every government department seems to be conducting or contemplating social marketing. Every advertising agency has expanded its range of communications to include new media and below the radar activities. There’s sudden new interest in the art of political public relations. How far does this interest go? Has the consumer back-lashed yet? Do they even realise it’s happening?
- Political mindsets – Once again the National Party has re-drawn the political landscape, making new arrangements possible now with a very timely swerve towards the place where urban liberals and provincial conservatives find common ground. New Zealand's 8 tribes are highly differentiated in political terms. So what matters to them in the political realm, who do they listen to, what views are fundamentally changing?
- Attitudes to business and corporate behaviour – There’s been considerable pressure on businesses to negate the image of sociopathic corporations, farming their customers and plundering the economy to serve their own interests. How widespread is that and what’s the current state of play? What’s admired, what’s expected of today’s corporate citizen? And importantly, which firms are increasingly reviled? And which ones are escaping the wrath of consumers?
- Perceptions of New Zealand in the world – It’s a proud little not-quite-as-green-as-it’s-painted country, but one that fewer and fewer of us have been born in or lived in continuously. So what is it that we feel part of? Where do we feel comfortable? Through what filters do we now see ourselves? What matters less?
You have to be flexible in your choice of topics - there are always wildcards, as I found in 2001 when I scheduled the survey phase for September 15th. And there are issues that are naturally "volcanic" like race relations, money and health and safety issues that blast out of nowhere and just as swiftly subside.You do what you can and adapt when you need to. Because as renowned astrologer Jonathon Cainer admits, you can't really foretell the future.
Cheers
Jill
PS If you'd like to see the actual social trends proposal, please click here A link to the proposal will be forwarded to you by email automatically.
Jill Caldwell is Director of Windshift Communications Ltd. Click Here to contact Jill directly This is a free monthly newsletter provided to direct subscribers and legitimate Windshift contacts only. No further use is made of subscriber information. [Copyright Windshift Communications Ltd 2006]
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